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[Music]

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all right Hi I'm Evelyn I'm a PhD

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candidate at the University of Toronto

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and I'd like to talk about some

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simulation work that I've been doing

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with my collaborators they're funded by

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answer

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so I work on Emirates which for the

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purposes of this talk I'm defining as

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roughly earth-sized rocky planets in the

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habitable zone of an M dwarf star and so

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because because the star is small the

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planet is close to the Stars so we

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assume it's totally locked

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um so this this diagram over here just

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kind of shows what that looks like

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so we have the Stars somewhere over here

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um light from the Star hitting the

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planet at the substellar point which is

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always at the same place because the

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planet has a permanent day and night

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side and the Terminator is kind of a

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cool word for the dividing line between

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the day side and the night side so just

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kind of keep that in mind I'll be using

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some of these terms

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now the base assumption is that these

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planets have what we call an eyeball

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climate so again we have the star here

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um the assumption is that the night side

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is frozen and part of the day side is

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unfrozen near the sub Stellar point

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where it receives the most radiation and

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you would assume that's a circle this is

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actually an oversimplification but it's

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kind of a good starting point

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so

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I have a few questions that I'd like to

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be trying to answer today

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first of all how does land configuration

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affect Emirates climates how does the

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mass of the atmosphere affect their

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climates I'll be answering those using a

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3D GCM General circulation model called

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exoplasm and then the next part is can

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we tell these climates apart and

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observations I'll be using a radiative

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transfer model based on my exoplasm

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so to start I like to talk about land

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configuration

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and so if the recall the eyeball climate

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we kind of have a cartoon of this here

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the idea is what happens if we put land

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in that warm deglaciated region because

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that's the region that's probably the

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most interesting

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but what's going on in the surface there

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um

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so I've done this in a systematic way

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um

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as I'm showing over here

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basically we have two opposite content

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configurations where either all of the

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land is in a circle at the substellar

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point so that's the substellar continent

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over here with ocean everywhere else and

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if if the ocean is cold there's ice

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instead of open water and then the

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opposite substellar ocean putting land

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everywhere except for a circle at the

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substellar point where there's water

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um

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and we vary the size of the circle in

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all of these simulations going from zero

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to a hundred percent so

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here you can see that sometimes there's

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ice-free ocean and sometimes there's not

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and these ones there's always some ice

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so now what what happens to the climate

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when we run the climate model with these

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there's a lot going on here so let's

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let's just take it slowly on the on the

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left here we have substellar continent

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models with different land fractions

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so this First Column is the land map

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just looking straight down at the center

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of the day side with the night side not

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shown

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um

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precipitation and evaporation so red is

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evaporation blue is precipitation you'll

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notice it always rains at the substellar

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point and water evaporates from the

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ocean everywhere else on the day side

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and this is true for these ones these

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substellar Ocean Models as well you get

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clouds and precipitation in the middle

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of the day side and over ocean

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regardless of where the land is

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so the water comes toward the center of

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the planet where it's warmest Rises it

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condenses out and you get rain

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so

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temperatures depending on how much land

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there is with high land fraction planets

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having hot and dry day sides which is

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what's shown in this column here so

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these are some pretty significant

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climate differences

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um

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like on a spatially resolved level this

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is what this looks like globally on the

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x-axis we have dayside land fraction so

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the size of of the circle for these two

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landmap types and on the y-axis we have

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temperature on the left and water vapor

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on the right

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um you'll notice that there's the

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largest discrepancy between the two

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partial dayside land cover so

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when it when it's not an aquaplanet or a

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land Planet somewhere in between it

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really matters a lot where the land is

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because that influences the amount of

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ice-free ocean that's available on the

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planet for evaporation and putting

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moisture into the atmosphere and these

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curves kind of follow each other

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so

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this is already a climate uncertainty

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that we need to kind of think about

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um

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now let's make it more complicated by

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changing another parameter the mass of

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the atmosphere so like land

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configuration that's not necessarily

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something we can know about a planet in

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advance

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so I varied it in my simulations the

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idea is

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basically make the atmosphere thicker or

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smaller that's what I've tried to show

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over here

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and

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these are the same curves that were on

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the previous slide but this time

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for a range of pressures so increasing

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the amount of N2 in the atmosphere

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and again you get

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the same land fraction and land

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configuration dependence

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but in addition to that the curves are

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shifted up or down depending on the

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pressure so they overlap it's very

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confusing

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um we

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like there's clearly some climate

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effects here that need to be paid

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attention to and so then the next thing

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we want to know is can we ever know this

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stuff can we tell these apart in

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observations

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so the way these planets will be

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observed is with Transit spectroscopy

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which is what jwst will do

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um I have a kind of image of what that

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looks like basically when the planet

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passes between the Observer and the star

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it blocks out some of the Stars light

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which is measurable and there's a

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wavelength dependent contribution to the

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amount of light blocked depending on the

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molecules in the atmosphere and where

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they scatter and absorb

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So based on what wavelengths block the

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most light we can tell what's in the

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atmosphere this is really hard to do for

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small planets but this is like the

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theory of it

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so

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the question then because most of the

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water if you'll recall was at the sub

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Stellar point is how much water is

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making it to the Terminator because the

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Terminator

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um sorry

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the the Terminator is where

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like we're getting actually the photons

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from we can't directly image the

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substellar point so we're getting the

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so I have some profiles here of specific

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humidity for the two different types of

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land map this is just all at the same

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pressure

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upward in the atmosphere on the y-axis

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and specific humidity on the x-axis

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for near the substellar point and near

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the Terminator so looking

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her relationship between

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the amount of water in the Rainy Zone

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and the amount of water we can see

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um subcellular Ocean Models

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all look pretty much the same which

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makes sense there's water there

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there's a bit less of the Terminator but

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it's still there for the substellar

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continent models the ones with a lot of

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land have much less water at the

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Terminator but still some

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so maybe we can tell the difference

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so now I've I'd like to show some

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synthetic Transit Spectra I've made

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using only water so I've ignored all

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other possible things that could

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contribute to this so on the x-axis we

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have wavelength that the instrument is

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observing at and on the y-axis we have

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what I've defined as amplitude so

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basically the difference between the

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transit depth that you get so the amount

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of light block from the star and the

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minimum amount so either the amount just

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by the rocky planet itself or the lowest

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cloud deck or the lowest part that that

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would be visible

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because it's really this difference that

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we're looking to measure more so than

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the actual size of the planet itself so

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these are just for a few selected

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simulations from my parameter space

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and so varying only the land and the

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pressure we get quite a sizable

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difference in these water vapor spectral

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features

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so these could

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these are kind of a range of what a

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specific Planet might produce

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um then on the bottom we have the Cloudy

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version so these same ones but with

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clouds included in the radiative

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transfer and

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you'll notice that the features are

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smaller but also they're not all

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affected the same way depending on

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where like how many how many clouds are

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at the Terminator which varies depending

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on different factors so it's a bit

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confusing

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I'd like to just focus on on this

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feature though so

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I'd like to show like basically the top

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of this feature for a variety of models

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and that's what this looks like on the

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left we have the cloud free version on

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the right we have with clouds included

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um

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again these curves kind of follow the

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same shape as the temperature and water

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vapor from a few slides ago

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but

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when you add clouds it gets a lot worse

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unfortunately basically

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there's there's like some correlations

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in a cloud-free version these high

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pressure low land models have much

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taller spectral features so you might be

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able to detect that or tell the

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difference but then when we add clouds

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what happens is that these Waters these

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models with the most water vapor are

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also the cloudiest of the Terminator and

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consequently

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theme like the effect of clouds on a

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spectrum is much higher so

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like that it gets like artificially

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subdued so it looks like these dry

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models over here have the most water but

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that's not actually true

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so observing this

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it's going to be very hard to tell

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what's going on on the surface of the

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planet

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um

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just

285
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try to end on a happy note

286
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um there's a huge range of climates here

287
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we can't necessarily tell them apart but

288
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a lot of them could be habitable and we

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might be able to detect water in some of

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them

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so

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like I'm still like cautiously

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optimistic I guess but

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it's it's more important I think to

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account for the fact that there are

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these unknowns instead of just trying to

297
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make assumptions about what's going on

298
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on the surface of the planet based on

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its Transit Spectrum

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I'll stop here and I'm happy to take any

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questions

302
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[Applause]

303
00:11:50,569 --> 00:11:48,470
hi uh great talk

304
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um really interesting stuff so I'm

305
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wondering about you have these simulated

306
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spec Transit Spectra I'm

307
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and it looks a little uh pessimistic

308
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based on how close those lines are but

309
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jwst has been delivering some

310
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exquisitely Precision precise Spectra so

311
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I'm wondering if you have plans to model

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like the noise properties and stuff and

313
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it like actually simulate jwst

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observations of these kind of things to

315
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see if you can actually distinguish

316
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maybe a few things because the trans

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inspector are so precise

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um because of this incredible instrument

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that we have

320
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yeah it would be good to add some

321
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instrumental noise to them it's also

322
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really hard to do that accurately

323
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um there's like

324
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it's it's harder to get precise Spectra

325
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for these smaller stars like most of

326
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what's been coming so far is or sorry

327
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smaller planets bigger bigger planets

328
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are easier to get like good data from

329
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but yeah there's

330
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um there's more Photon noise in the far

331
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or mid infrared compared to the near

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infrared so I think it'd be good to

333
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focus on that but

334
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yeah it would be

335
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like it might be possible to tell some

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of them apart but it would be a good

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thing to look into thanks for the

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Taylor plattner at Georgia Tech great

339
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talk also just wanted to say all the

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other talks were very interesting this

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morning

342
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um and it's super cool I used to do

343
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exoplanet stuff when I was in undergrad

344
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so you're taking me back to I guess my

345
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old days sounds like I'm an old person

346
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um but uh I had a question on you know I

347
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know you're doing simulations but are

348
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you going to eventually like

349
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look at specific planets and if so do

350
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you have like a I don't know there's

351
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kind of like I used to do this like a

352
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development like a prototype um

353
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instrument to put on ground-based

354
00:13:46,850 --> 00:13:44,100
telescope to like vet out interesting

355
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planets so I didn't know if you had like

356
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a I don't know anything to like vet out

357
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interesting planets to you like with

358
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jwst or with any other like telescope

359
00:13:58,610 --> 00:13:55,980
um sorry if that's a terrible question

360
00:14:01,670 --> 00:13:58,620
but just curious no it's an interesting

361
00:14:03,470 --> 00:14:01,680
I'm not an observer I'm mostly just

362
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waiting excitedly for other people to

363
00:14:08,030 --> 00:14:06,720
get data and like I would say the one

364
00:14:11,210 --> 00:14:08,040
I'm most excited about is probably

365
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Travis 20 but excited and apprehensive

366
00:14:14,629 --> 00:14:13,019
at the same time because it'll be really

367
00:14:17,509 --> 00:14:14,639
sad if they don't find an atmosphere on

368
00:14:19,790 --> 00:14:17,519
it but yeah ground ground-based

369
00:14:21,829 --> 00:14:19,800
observations would be like another

370
00:14:23,030 --> 00:14:21,839
good way to to look at these planets

371
00:14:27,110 --> 00:14:23,040
because you can get such a bigger

372
00:14:29,449 --> 00:14:27,120
telescope okay this is with jwst how

373
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often is it like looking at like if you

374
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had some planner that you're really

375
00:14:35,569 --> 00:14:33,300
interested in how often is it like

376
00:14:37,370 --> 00:14:35,579
looking at that planet or would you like

377
00:14:38,990 --> 00:14:37,380
I don't know I know Tess was another one

378
00:14:41,030 --> 00:14:39,000
that people like were really excited

379
00:14:45,769 --> 00:14:41,040
about so I didn't know if that was

380
00:14:48,290 --> 00:14:45,779
easier to like get data like to see that

381
00:14:49,910 --> 00:14:48,300
same Planet more and I know it yeah like

382
00:14:53,689 --> 00:14:49,920
you were saying it's not as great

383
00:14:56,870 --> 00:14:53,699
everybody loves JW wst for a reason yeah

384
00:14:59,629 --> 00:14:56,880
well Tess is a planet finder so it it's

385
00:15:02,449 --> 00:14:59,639
found a bunch of candidates

386
00:15:04,370 --> 00:15:02,459
so like anything that starts with toi I

387
00:15:05,870 --> 00:15:04,380
mean tests object of Interest what

388
00:15:08,210 --> 00:15:05,880
they're called

389
00:15:10,370 --> 00:15:08,220
um and then jwst is kind of needed or

390
00:15:11,750 --> 00:15:10,380
like some large telescope is needed for

391
00:15:13,430 --> 00:15:11,760
follow-up to actually characterize their

392
00:15:15,829 --> 00:15:13,440
atmospheres because it's much easier to

393
00:15:17,750 --> 00:15:15,839
find the planets than to see what's in

394
00:15:19,069 --> 00:15:17,760
their atmospheres especially with such

395
00:15:21,050 --> 00:15:19,079
thin ones

396
00:15:22,970 --> 00:15:21,060
uh did that answer the question

397
00:15:25,970 --> 00:15:22,980
yeah yeah

398
00:15:31,430 --> 00:15:25,980
good talk thank you thank you so much

399
00:15:35,870 --> 00:15:34,370
hi that was also super I'm pretty far

400
00:15:38,389 --> 00:15:35,880
removed from this exoplanet stuff

401
00:15:39,949 --> 00:15:38,399
because this is sick so um I I have a

402
00:15:41,389 --> 00:15:39,959
question that I apologize for my

403
00:15:43,069 --> 00:15:41,399
inability to ask a more specific

404
00:15:46,189 --> 00:15:43,079
question about your work that's just a

405
00:15:48,650 --> 00:15:46,199
lack of my understanding but um I'm

406
00:15:51,590 --> 00:15:48,660
curious that they were talking about how

407
00:15:54,710 --> 00:15:51,600
like this Exquisite Precision with jwst

408
00:15:57,590 --> 00:15:54,720
and and all this stuff and so is how far

409
00:16:00,110 --> 00:15:57,600
off well I'll preface by saying

410
00:16:01,730 --> 00:16:00,120
um the past couple of decades as I'm

411
00:16:03,170 --> 00:16:01,740
sure you're aware our understanding of

412
00:16:05,930 --> 00:16:03,180
planetary habitability has really

413
00:16:07,430 --> 00:16:05,940
shifted with the uh our increased

414
00:16:09,410 --> 00:16:07,440
understanding of these icy moons in our

415
00:16:15,250 --> 00:16:09,420
solar system and things like that

416
00:16:18,290 --> 00:16:15,260
um how far off is our ability to examine

417
00:16:20,629 --> 00:16:18,300
moons of exoplanets given like a small

418
00:16:22,610 --> 00:16:20,639
enough star or something like that or is

419
00:16:24,590 --> 00:16:22,620
that just like so far off from reality

420
00:16:27,170 --> 00:16:24,600
given their technological abilities at

421
00:16:30,230 --> 00:16:27,180
the moment I would say it's that's far

422
00:16:31,550 --> 00:16:30,240
off unforged like yeah the problem is

423
00:16:32,870 --> 00:16:31,560
that that you have to like detect the

424
00:16:35,569 --> 00:16:32,880
planet and then the moon going around

425
00:16:37,490 --> 00:16:35,579
the planet and it's they're just really

426
00:16:38,629 --> 00:16:37,500
hard to find and they'll be even harder

427
00:16:40,430 --> 00:16:38,639
to observe

428
00:16:42,769 --> 00:16:40,440
which is unfortunate because I bet EXO

429
00:16:44,509 --> 00:16:42,779
moons are really cool

430
00:16:45,829 --> 00:16:44,519
and that would also deal with the tidal

431
00:16:50,210 --> 00:16:45,839
locking problem

432
00:16:52,790 --> 00:16:50,220
like like if an exumun was orbiting

433
00:16:55,069 --> 00:16:52,800
it's tidally locked Planet the moon will

434
00:16:56,389 --> 00:16:55,079
not be totally locked to the star so it

435
00:16:58,850 --> 00:16:56,399
could have day night cycles but they're

436
00:17:00,710 --> 00:16:58,860
just really hard to observe

437
00:17:02,509 --> 00:17:00,720
yeah thanks for that that would be

438
00:17:04,069 --> 00:17:02,519
really cool

439
00:17:09,589 --> 00:17:04,079
thank you for the talk everyone well

440
00:17:12,270 --> 00:17:10,010
[Music]